Protection Forecast Al-Hudaydah – CIMP special report, June 12

It is widely anticipated that a military push to capture Al-Hudaydah city will be initiated in the short to medium term.

Negotiations are ongoing but currently not the most likely scenario, which instead is an intensification in armed conflict. In the short term, this is likely in the form of air raids and naval shelling, potentially including on vital infrastructure and non-military targets.

As airstrikes in urban areas generate significantly higher civilian casualties on average than airstrikes in rural areas, heavy airstrikes on Al-Hudaydah city would likely see significant civilian casualties.

Clashes and heavy airstrikes are anticipated to take place on the main road running through Hays, Al-Garrahi and Zabid, as well as roads to the east of Al-Hudaydah city. These are areas with a high population concentration, and therefore the civilian impact is expected to increase.